Iowa vs. Ohio State prediction, picks, best bets for Big Ten Tournament first round

Is Ohio State going to make the NCAA Tournament? If you believe ESPN’s Bracketology projection, the Buckeyes are on the bubble as the last team in the field of 68. We won’t know if Ohio State will go dancing until Sunday, but one thing is for sure, it had better not lose in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament.

The No. 10 seed Buckeyes (17-14 SU, 16-15 ATS) open the conference tournament tonight against No. 15 Iowa (16-15 SU, 11-19-1 ATS). It is the first of what could be five games in five days for either team.

Wins over Illinois in the second round and Maryland in the quarterfinals would help Ohio State’s resume, but it has to get there first. The Buckeyes are 5- or 5.5-point favorites over Iowa tonight. The over/under is 154.5 points.

Here are our Iowa vs. Ohio State predictions and best bets for the first round of the Big Ten Tournament in Indianapolis.

Iowa vs. Ohio State predictions and best bets

• Ohio State -5 (-115 odds at Caesars Sportsbook)
• Ohio State team total Over 79.5 points (-118 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook)
• Micah Parrish Over 15.5 points (-122 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook)

Note: Odds are based on the best value our experts find as of publication; check lines closer to game time to ensure you get the best odds. Use our list of best Ohio sportsbook promos to maximize winnings.

Neither team has been impressive down the stretch. Iowa has won four of its last 15 games and is 2-13 against the spread in that run. Ohio State has won four of its last 10 and is 1-6 ATS in its previous seven.

Iowa defeated Nebraska in the regular-season finale to clinch a berth in the Big Ten Tournament. In retrospect, victories over Kentucky, Purdue, and Maryland have put them in a position to nab an NCAA Tournament berth. That would be important.

However, in this context, it is not. Nebraska limped to the finish line, losing its final five games.

These teams met once during the regular season. Ohio State won 82-65 at home, covering as 7-point favorites.

Nobody will give Ohio State credit for consistency, but at least the Buckeyes have won some big games. Wins over Kentucky, Purdue, and Maryland have put them in a position to nab an NCAA Tournament berth.

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Ohio State plays strong perimeter defense. That will matter against the Hawkeyes, who score 14.5 fewer points per 100 possessions away from home. They also have the lowest-ranked defense in the 15-team tournament field. That bodes well for Ohio State’s offense.

If it bodes well for Ohio State’s offense, it bodes well for guard Micah Parrish. He averages 13.2 points for the season but has picked up his scoring touch in the last month. Since Feb. 9, Parrish has averaged 18.6 points in nine games. He has scored at least 16 points in seven of those games.

Iowa vs. Ohio State moneyline odds analysis

Why Ohio State could win as the favorite

Best odds: -218 at DraftKings Sportsbook

With 17 wins in the regular season, it’s hard to believe the Buckeyes are on the NCAA Tournament bubble, but they are. They know that, and it means something against Iowa. Ohio State has something significant to play for. The Hawkeyes do not.

H3: Why Iowa could win as the underdog

Best odds: +185 at BetMGM Sportsbook

You can look at the motivation factor the other way, too. Ohio State’s players will know they cannot afford to lose tonight’s Big Ten Tournament opener, and that could make them tight down the stretch of a close game.

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On the other hand, the Hawkeyes can play without worry. They won’t participate in March Madness without winning the conference tournament. They can’t do that Monday night, so they won’t feel like they have something to lose. Sometimes you play your best when there is nothing to lose.