Israeli Strike on Iran More Likely Than Successful US-Iran Talks, National Security Researcher Says
As Trump reportedly warns Netanyahu against taking striking Iran while nuclear talks are ongoing, Israel seems more prepared than ever to take on its archenemy
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Donald Trump held a phone conversation on Monday that focused on the Iranian nuclear program. The talk comes as Israel is believed to be contemplating a preemptive strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, while the US and Iran are engaged in direct negotiations to reach an agreement regarding the Iranian nuclear program. Those talks are expected to resume over the weekend.
A statement released by Netanyahu’s office after the call referred to President Trump’s attempts to reach an agreement with Iran, without any details on the Israeli leader’s response. Immediately after the conversation, Netanyahu convened a special meeting to discuss the Iranian threat, one that Israel sees as existential.
President Trump reportedly warned Netanyahu against taking any steps that would undermine the negotiations with Iran.
Iran, Israel and others believe, is on the cusp of achieving military-grade nuclear capabilities.
We are closer to an attack than to the successful conclusion of the talks.
“We are closer to an attack than to the successful conclusion of the talks,” Kobi Michael, a researcher at the Institute of National Security Studies and the Misgav Institute for National Security and Zionist Strategy, told The Media Line.
For years, Israel has been carefully watching as Iran makes headway toward nuclear capability. Now, many in the country believe the time is ripe for a strike. Israel has demonstrated the ability to strike targets in Iran twice in the past year, carrying out large scale attacks deep inside Iranian territory. These attacks targeted missile factories, air defense systems, and radar installations, with over 100 Israeli aircraft penetrating Iranian airspace and striking 20 military sites.
As part of its war against Iranian proxies in the region since October 2023, Israel has managed to significantly diminish the threat from the Lebanese-based Hezbollah terrorist organization. Hezbollah was groomed by Tehran for decades, heavily armed and constantly trained by the Islamic regime in order to serve as a deterrent to Israel, lest it consider striking Iran.
Another factor deterring Israel from striking Iran was the strength of the Assad regime in Syria, which allowed for a flow of weapons and know-how between Iran, Syria, and Lebanon. Now that Assad has been ousted, Iran has less access to Syria, and Israel seems to have fewer obstacles in the way of a strike on Iran.
In the past, destroying Iran’s nuclear program was considered an unrealistic goal for Israel. Iran’s nuclear facilities are scattered across the country, raising doubts about Israel’s ability to perform the complex airstrikes to take them out, more than 1,000 miles away from Israel’s air force bases.
“Since October 2024, Iran’s abilities have been severely hit. Iran is much more vulnerable, in addition to losing their proxies,” Efraim Inbar, senior researcher at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, told The Media Line. “Their ability to threaten Israel with judgment day has diminished.”
Israel has also repeatedly launched airstrikes against the Houthi rebels in Yemen, highlighting its ability to carry out swift action across a broad region. These attacks have served as real-time test cases for lengthy flights that require refueling, similar to what would be required for a strike on Iran.
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On Tuesday morning, the Israeli navy struck at Houthi targets in Yemen. Israel’s military confirmed that this strike was the first to use navy missile ships on the coast of Yemen.
The military said in a statement that it was “determined to continue operating against anyone who poses a threat to Israel wherever necessary,” perhaps messaging to Iran, the Houthis’ main backer, that it too could be threatened by Israeli naval capabilities.
Inbar said that Israel might strike Iran with a joint operation by the air force and the navy. “It could also use long range missiles and commando forces on the ground to make sure the strikes were successful,” he said.
He said that commando forces are most likely already training for operations deep within Iranian soil.
Recent media reports suggest the US has sent Israel bunker buster bombs capable of penetrating Iran’s deeply embedded nuclear facilities. Israel is believed to possess dozens of Jericho missiles. These surface-to-surface missiles, developed by Israel, have a range that can reach Iran and can reportedly carry a warhead of up to 1,000 kilograms, with potential nuclear capabilities.
Israel will undertake a multiarmed attack, which will use the navy, perhaps abilities from outer space and cyberattacks as well.
Michael said that an Israeli attack would likely begin with strikes by the military’s F-35 fighter jets, which are often able to avoid detection by radar. “After that, Israel will undertake a multiarmed attack, which will use the navy, perhaps abilities from outer space and cyberattacks as well.”
Israel is believed to be behind hundreds of airstrikes and other operations against the Iranian nuclear program. These include assassinations of senior Iranian scientists and cyberattacks against nuclear facilities.
An Israeli attack on Iran, which will likely be at least a few days long, will also trigger an Iranian response. “The goal is also to neutralize Iran’s ability to retaliate and to diminish its ability to respond both immediately and in the long run, in addition to engrain in Iran the cost of defeat,” Michael said.
The idea is to surprise Iran and do so with alarming force. Such an attack will not only target Iran’s nuclear program, but also be against other military targets, financial targets and symbols of the Iranian regime.
“The idea is to surprise Iran and do so with alarming force,” he explained. “Such an attack will not only target Iran’s nuclear program, but also be against other military targets, financial targets and symbols of the Iranian regime.”
Israel’s leadership has drawn a clear line connecting the fundamentalist regime in Tehran and the country’s nuclear aspirations, making the case that the Islamic republic will aspire to nuclear arms as long as it remains in power.
One of the open questions remaining about a possible Israeli strike is whether the Jewish state will choose to strike alone, without American military support. For now, negotiations between Washington and Tehran are ongoing, making an Israeli strike highly unlikely. Should the talks fail, it remains to be seen whether the US will take an active part in such an offensive.
President Trump has sent mixed messages about whether the US would choose to strike Iran if negotiations fail.
“The US will be involved in one way or another,” Inbar said.
In recent years, Israel and the US have held joint drills, including simulated target strikes.
In October 2024, the US bolstered the Israeli air defense system by deploying a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense battery and 100 soldiers to the region. The US led a regional coalition that helped Israel almost completely thwart last year’s Iranian attacks, which included the firing of hundreds of drones and ballistic missiles toward Israel.
Netanyahu has indicated that he might decide to attack Iran without American support if the US agrees to a deal that doesn’t meet Israel’s standards. Israel is believed to have been on the cusp of attacking Iran several times in recent years, only to defer.
Israel has been building its ability for decades, and while it will not be easy to go at it alone, it is possible.
“Israel has been building its ability for decades, and while it will not be easy to go at it alone, it is possible,” Michael said.
Many in Israel believe that Netanyahu has already decided to strike Iran, with only the timing of the attack still to be determined.
