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Race-by-race tips and previews for Wednesday’s meeting at Warwick Farm
By Neil Evans
Track heavy 9 and rail true.
RACE 1
5. Alabama Fox won two straight up to BM64 level before faltering in consecutive and tougher races without a lot of luck on her side. Back in grade from a much lower draw, with the leading rider taking over. 1. Fear No Evil is progressive, having won her first two, and then was beaten less than a length in the Wagga Guineas last start. This is tougher, but she’ll roll forward in suitable conditions. 6. Willie Oppa is an improver over further second up, and clear best of the rest.
How to play it: Alabama Fox to win.
Racing heads to Warwick Farm on Wednesday.Credit: Fairfax
RACE 2
Exceedance filly 9. Change My Address has her first start for the John Sargent yard behind two eye-catching trials, bolting in the most recent in heavy going. Another debutant, 10. Marinera, from the Bjorn Baker stable, has won both lead-up trials on rain-affected ground and draws the inside. 4. Jet, which went under as an odds-on favourite in open country class on debut, and is right in contention.
How to play it: Change My Address to win.
RACE 3
1. Mansiere is a tough Victorian four-year-old by Brave Smash primed to snap a long wait for a third career win in ground he thrives. Was never far away in deeper races last spring, and while he was well beaten first up in a farcical three-horse race at Warrnambool, the winner is smart having then bolted in in a group 3 feature at Morphettville. The 3kg claim is a big plus in these conditions, and two of his three career wins so far have come on heavy ground. 2. Livin’ Thing resumed with a narrow and tough win at Kembla, but shaping under the odds sneaking up in the weights against metro opposition. 7. Big Red Tequila must be included despite a wide draw, having roared home to win her maiden in heavy ground at only her third start. 5. First Person, an improving mare whose best form is all on soft and heavy tracks.
How to play it: Mansiere to win.
RACE 4
6. Junebug is an improving and sparingly raced on-speed mare that has been in and around the money in some handy provincial races. Gets a timely drop in grade here in a race lacking depth, drawn to get a cosy run and loves these conditions. 1. Black Run looks a big threat getting to this longer trip third up. 3. Up And Under has worked home late in his past couple, and gets a key jockey change third up also over a more suitably longer journey, while 7. Knights Armour was fair to the line through plenty of traffic at huge odds in the Wagga Cup, and more at home on rain-affected ground.
How to play it: Junebug to win.
RACE 5
5. Apex is a frustrating yet smart three-year-old that can start to pay back the punters here second up in a thin race. Found ways to get beaten last prep when well in the market before again going under resuming at Canterbury in lesser grade as a $1.60 favourite. Gets a better draw out in the middle here and more than comfortable finishing over them in these conditions. 2. Fangela is an iron-like Canberra seven-year-old that handles all going, and finally gets a well-deserved crack at city opposition. Has won three of his past four from just off the speed in open country class, and looks fairly placed at this level after the jockey’s 3kg allowance. 3. Struck Gold is a real wet-tracker, and clear best of the rest third up with a 3kg claim. Include both 8. Ready To Shine fourth-up and 10. Elegant Empress second-up in first fours.
How to play it: Apex to win.
RACE 6
1. Naval Commission is a tough five-year-old that relishes wet tracks, and rates on top at value second up over a shade further. Came off two quiet trials to run home well fresh and solid in the market in a deeper race. Proven he holds that form into the next run, and a superior jockey takes over. 3. Good Prize also thrives in the wet, and takes the next step up into city company after three consecutive wins on the country and provincial circuit over this trip. 6. Sounds Unusual gets blinkers added after missing by a whisker first-up at big odds over this trip, but still under the mark from a wide barrier.
How to play it: Naval Commission to win.
RACE 7
1. Little Cointreau comes back in grade after finishing well just behind the placegetters in tougher company at Randwick. Bred to get further, and with a 2kg-claiming jockey having pattern options from a middle gate late in the day, he can finish best and take his winning strike rate to better than 30 per cent. 5. Missile Seeker is another wet-tracker ready for this next level after surging home to dominate a BM64 at the provincials. Big watch on 8. Stallone, a smart son of prolific wet-track sire Extreme Choice, which resumes from a low draw behind two forward trials. 7. Lady Boss, which thrives in the ground and gets much-needed weight relief deep into the prep.
How to play it: Little Cointreau to win.
Best bets
Race 1: (5) Alabama Fox
Race 6: (1) Naval Commission
Best value
Race 4: (6) Junebug
Supplied by Racing NSW
Full form and race replays available at racingnsw.com.au